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Daily market reviews from www.HYmarkets.com 1 year, 2 months ago #21

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Euro Falls to 3-Week Low Before Germany-Italy Meet, Bond Sales
2012-02-16 06:51:54.732 GMT


By Kristine Aquino and Candice Zachariahs
Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The euro dropped to a three-week low before German and Italian leaders meet tomorrow ahead of a finance ministers’ gathering next week to decide on a second bailout package for Greece.
The 17-nation currency slid for a second day versus the yen before Spain and France sell debt amid concern a delay in Greek aid will increase borrowing costs for the region. The dollar strengthened as Asian stocks fell and Moody’s Investors Service said it’s reviewing banks including UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group AG for possible downgrades. Australia’s currency climbed versus its New Zealand counterpart after a report showed the larger nation’s unemployment rate unexpectedly declined.
“The Greek situation is in the ‘too hard’ basket and my target for euro before the end of February is $1.25,” said Kurt Magnus, executive director of currency sales in Sydney at Nomura Holdings Inc. “The market has lost faith, and it’s evident that there’s no conviction in being long risk in the equity market or long euro.” A long position is a bet an asset value will rise.
The shared currency lost 0.4 percent to $1.3014 as of 6:41 a.m. in London after earlier sliding to $1.3008, the lowest level since Jan. 25. The euro weakened 0.4 percent to 102.07 yen. The dollar was little changed at 78.44 yen.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks slumped 1.1 percent.

Merkel, Monti Meet

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will travel to Rome tomorrow for talks with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, her spokesman Steffen Seibert said yesterday in Berlin. The leaders will hold a joint press conference after the meeting.
France and Spain are scheduled to auction as much as 14.3 billion euros ($18.6 billion) in bonds today, three days after Moody’s cut the ratings of six European nations including Spain and revised its credit outlook on France to “negative.”
France plans to sell as much as 8.5 billion euros in two-, three-and five-year bonds, while Spain aims to sell a maximum of
4 billion euros in securities maturing in January and July 2015 and October 2019. France is also auctioning as much as 1.8 billion euros of index-linked bonds. The Netherlands will offer
$2 billion in debt due 2017.
While “further considerations are necessary regarding the specific mechanisms to strengthen the surveillance of program implementation,” Europe is set to make “all the necessary decisions” on 130 billion euros in aid for Greece at a Feb. 20 meeting, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said in an e-mailed statement after chairing a conference call of euro- area finance ministers yesterday.

Worst Performer

The euro has depreciated 1 percent in the past week, the worst performance among the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar was the biggest gainer, having added 1.3 percent.
The U.S. currency advanced versus most major counterparts as Moody’s said it may lower UBS, Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley’s ratings by as many as three levels. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Deutsche Bank AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. are among companies that may be downgraded by two grades, the ratings company said, adding that the “guidance is indicative only.”
Moody’s ratings warnings “keep the focus on the big issues out there facing credit markets and banks,” said Jim Vrondas, a manager at the online foreign-exchange dealer OzForex Ltd. in Sydney. “It does add to the uncertainty around Europe at the moment and though it’s not totally unexpected, it does seem to be on a massive scale. We will see the U.S. dollar relatively well supported on dips.”

Labor Market Improvement

The so-called Aussie dollar climbed by the most in a week against New Zealand’s currency after Australia’s statistics bureau said the jobless rate dropped to 5.1 percent in January as payrolls climbed by 46,300. That was better than the median economist estimate in a Bloomberg News survey, which called for an unemployment rate of 5.3 percent and a 10,000-job increase.
“The Australian dollar rose very sharply after the jobs release,” said Andrew Salter, a strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney. “The Reserve Bank is going to follow the unemployment rate most closely in its monetary policy deliberations,” so a rate cut in March will now depend on the events unfolding in Europe, he said.
Traders are betting on a 40 percent chance the RBA will lower its benchmark rate on March 6 from 4.25 percent, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG index based on swaps. The probability of a cut was 56 percent yesterday.
The Australian dollar rose 0.5 percent to NZ$1.2907, the biggest one-day advance since Feb. 7.

For Related News and Information:
Stories on currencies: NI FRX <GO>
Stories on central banks: NI CEN <GO>
Foreign-Exchange Forecasts: FXFC <GO>
Foreign-Exchange Information Portal: FXIP <GO>

--Editors: Naoto Hosoda, Jonathan Annells.

Re: Daily market reviews from www.HYmarkets.com 1 year, 2 months ago #24

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Euro Strengthens on Optimism Greece Agreement Will Be Reached
2012-02-17 13:01:27.939 GMT


By Allison Bennett
Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The euro strengthened versus the dollar on optimism European officials will agree to provide Greece with funding for a second bailout package.
The 17-nation currency rose to a two-month high versus the yen after Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos expressed optimism that an “agreement on Greece” can be reached at a Brussels meeting of euro-area finance ministers on Feb. 20.
Norway’s krone and South Korea’s won led gains versus the dollar as global equity markets advanced.
“It’s simply a reversal of an overly pessimistic view on the euro zone from earlier in the week, so there is upside for the euro and there is a recovery in the stability trade,” said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. “There’s become a clear case of buying the dips in the market’s mentality.”
The euro rose 0.6 percent to 104.33, at 7:50 a.m. in New York, the strongest level since Dec. 9. The shared currency rallied 0.2 percent to $1.3162, earlier touching $1.3175. The dollar rose 0.4 percent to 79.24 yen, the strongest since Oct.
31.


For Related News and Information:
Stories on currencies: NI FRX <GO>
Stories on central banks: NI CEN <GO>
Foreign-Exchange Forecasts: FXFC <GO>
Foreign-Exchange Information Portal: FXIP <GO>

--With assistance from Jeffrey Donovan in Brussels. Editor:
Kenneth Pringle

Re: Daily market reviews from www.HYmarkets.com 1 year, 2 months ago #25

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Oil Set for Biggest 2012 Weekly Gain on U.S. Economy, Greek Aid
2012-02-17 19:03:01.234 GMT


By Mark Shenk
Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Oil climbed in New York, heading for the biggest weekly gain this year, as signs of an improving U.S.
economy and progress on a bailout for Greece bolstered the outlook for fuel demand. Brent touched an eight-month high.
West Texas Intermediate crude rose as much as 1.2 percent today and is up 4.7 percent this week. The index of U.S. leading indicators advanced in January for a fourth month. Germany expressed confidence that euro-area governments will agree on a
130 billion-euro ($171 billion) rescue for Greece within days, while seeking to keep a bond swap of the nation’s debt on track.
“We’ve had a strong week and there’s strong upward momentum,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The headlines are what’s driving this market and if they point to a better economy, prices will rise. It looks like a Greek deal is going to finally get done.”
Oil for March delivery rose $1.02, or 1 percent, to $103.33 a barrel at 1:37 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract reached $103.57, the highest level since Jan. 5.
Futures are headed for the biggest weekly gain since Dec. 23.
Brent oil for April settlement dropped 54 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $119.57 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract touched $120.70, the highest level since June 15.
WTI is “approaching $103.74, the high from early January, which is a tempting target,” said Tom Bentz, a director with BNP Paribas Prime Brokerage Inc. in New York. “Brent is retreating after taking out its old highs.”

Leading Indicators

The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months climbed 0.4 percent after a revised 0.5 percent gain in December that was more than initially reported, the New York-based group said today. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for an increase of
0.5 percent.
Applications for unemployment insurance payments in the U.S. dropped 13,000 in the week ended Feb. 11 to 348,000, the Labor Department said yesterday. The Commerce Department reported yesterday that U.S. builders broke ground on more homes than forecast in January and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose this month.
“The U.S. economy is in better shape than had been feared,” Eugen Weinberg, the head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, who predicts Brent crude will slide toward $110 a barrel by the end of the year. “The current price action is a liquidity and investment-driven rally on the back of U.S. economic sentiment and improving equity markets, fueled further by fears of possible supply cutbacks.”

Conference Call

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos discussed efforts to secure a second Greek bailout and are confident that euro-area finance ministers will “find a solution for open questions” on Feb. 20, Steffen Seibert, Merkel’s chief spokesman, said in a statement. The leaders held a conference call around noon today, Seibert said in the e-mailed statement.
The European debt crisis that began in Greece has spread to Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain.
U.S. fuel demand dropped to the lowest level for January in
17 years, the American Petroleum Institute said. Total deliveries of petroleum products, a measure of demand, fell 5.7 percent to 18 million barrels a day last month from January 2011, the industry-funded group said today in a report.

Fuel Consumption

“The U.S. economy is looking pretty strong and a lot of people are looking for demand to trend along higher, but that has yet to happen,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “Consumer preferences changed when gasoline prices surged in 2008 and automakers responded by making more efficient vehicles. Gasoline is still expensive and consumers would rather spend their money on something else.”
Oil may rise next week on concern that shipments will be disrupted by tension between Iran and the West over the country’s nuclear program, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Fifteen of 37 analysts, or 41 percent, forecast oil will climb through Feb. 24. Twelve respondents, or 32 percent, predicted prices will decline and 10 said there will be little change.
Daily volumes in Brent crude call options above the market price have risen above 25,000 on four days during the past two weeks in New York, signaling an increase in bets on a possible price rally.
Electronic trading volume on the Nymex was 538,788 contracts as of 1:39 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 660,975 yesterday. Open interest was 1.48 million contracts.

For Related News and Information:
Top energy, oil stories: ETOP <GO> and OTOP <GO> News on oil inventories: TNI OIL INV <GO> News on oil markets: NI OILMARKET <GO> News on OPEC: NI OPEC <GO> Global energy statistics: ENST OLD <GO> Oil markets menu: OIL <GO>

--With assistance from Grant Smith in London. Editors: Richard Stubbe, Charlotte Porter

Re: Daily market reviews from www.HYmarkets.com 1 year, 2 months ago #31

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Euro Falls on Concern Debt Crisis Will Persist After Aid Deal
2012-02-21 13:41:33.964 GMT


By Anchalee Worrachate
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell from a three-month high against the yen on concern further political action will be needed to resolve the region’s debt crisis even after Greece won a second international bailout.
The 17-nation currency erased gains that came as Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said the rescue deal includes a 53.5 percent writedown for investors in Greek bonds. An analysis by the International Monetary Fund and European officials indicated Greece’s debt may still balloon to 160 percent of its gross domestic product.
“I don’t think the market can suddenly become optimistic that this is the end of it,” said Paul Robson, a senior currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. Further gains for the euro may be limited because “the challenges ahead are very steep,” he said.
The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.3223 at 8:39 a.m. New York time after touching $1.3293, the highest level since Feb. 9.
Europe’s currency decreased 0.2 percent to 105.30 yen after earlier rising to 106.01 yen, the most since Nov. 14. The dollar was little changed at 79.65 yen.
Australia’s dollar dropped against all of its 16 major peers tracked by Bloomberg after minutes of the Reserve Bank’s Feb. 7 meeting showed policy makers said there is scope to ease monetary policy if needed.

Australian View

The board “judged that if demand conditions were to weaken materially, the inflation outlook would provide scope for a further easing in monetary policy,” the minutes said. The central bank unexpectedly held rates at 4.25 percent this month after two quarter-percentage-point reductions late last year
Australia’s currency fell 0.9 percent to $1.0665. The Aussie dropped 0.6 percent to A$1.2381 per euro and fell 0.8 percent to 85.97 yen.
Implied volatility on three-month options for the euro-dollar exchange rate fell today to 11.02 percent, the lowest level since April 21. Implied volatility, which traders quote and use to set option prices, signals the expected pace of swings in the underlying currency.
Euro-area finance ministers awarded 130 billion euros
($173 billion) in aid to Greece and reached an accord for greater debt relief from investor representatives in an exchange offer to tide the nation past a bond redemption next month.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi called the deal “a very good agreement.” Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said private bondholders agreed to take a bigger writeoff on their Greek debt after “intense” negotiations.

Euro Gains

The euro gained 0.4 percent in the past week, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, which track 10 developed-market currencies. The yen weakened 2 percent over the same period, and the dollar slipped 0.3 percent.
Further gains in the euro may be limited as the deal hasn’t changed the structure of the Greece’s debt problem and there’s risk Greece may not be able to deliver what it promised, said Chris Walker, a currency strategy at UBS AG in London.
“The deal is helping to support the euro in the near term as the outright default appears to have been avoided and short-term uncertainty is removed,” said Walker. “But we remain cautious because several outstanding issues remain unresolved. As has been the case so often throughout this debt crisis, implementation has proven to be a problem.”
Futures traders have increased bets that the euro will decline against the U.S. dollar, figures from the Washington- based Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed last week.

Euro Net Shorts

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a drop in the euro compared with those on a gain -- so-called net shorts -- was 148,641 on Feb.
14, compared with 140,593 a week earlier.
The dollar has appreciated 4.6 percent against the yen this month and touched 79.89 yen yesterday, the highest level since Aug. 4, before a report on American housing.
Purchases of existing homes in the U.S. probably rose 0.9 percent to a 4.65 million annual rate, the National Association of Realtors will say tomorrow, according to the median economist estimate in Bloomberg News survey.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on Jan. 25 he is considering additional asset purchases and that the central bank will keep the benchmark interest rate low through at least late 2014. The Fed purchased $2.3 trillion of Treasury and mortgage-related bonds in two rounds of quantitative easing that ended in June.

For Related News and Information:
Stories on currencies: NI FRX <GO>
Stories on central banks: NI CEN <GO>
Foreign-Exchange Forecasts: FXFC <GO>
Foreign-Exchange Information Portal: FXIP <GO>

--Editors: Dennis Fitzgerald, Kenneth Pringle

Re: Daily market reviews from www.HYmarkets.com 1 year, 2 months ago #32

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Oil Rises to Nine-Month High on Greek Aid Deal, Iran Export Halt
2012-02-21 19:23:30.942 GMT


By Moming Zhou and Mark Shenk
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Oil increased to a nine-month high after Greece won a second bailout and Iran said it stopped selling crude to France and Britain.
Futures rose as much as 2.7 percent after the euro-area ministers approved 130 billion euros ($173 billion) in aid for Greece by tapping into European Central Bank profits and coaxing investors into providing debt relief, shielding the region from a default. Iran stopped selling oil to the countries yesterday, preempting a European Union ban, an official news website said.
“There’s a lot of relief about the Greek situation in the market and Iran is making a lot of noises,” said Kyle Cooper, director of research at IAF Advisors, a Houston-based energy consulting company. “The Greek agreement has increased optimism about the economy.”
Crude oil for March delivery gained $2.62, or 2.5 percent, to $105.86 a barrel at 2:04 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract climbed to $106.07, the highest intraday level since May 5. Futures have risen 7.1 percent this year. The March contract expires at the close of floor trading today.
The more actively traded April contract increased $2.69, or
2.6 percent, to $106.29 a barrel on the Nymex. Floor trading was closed yesterday because of the U.S. Presidents Day holiday.
Brent oil for April settlement increased $1.63, or 1.4 percent, to $121.68 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Greek Economy

Greece will enjoy an economic rebound now that European finance ministers have approved the rescue package, IIF managing director Charles Dallara said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Brussels.
“The Greece news is part of what rallied the market,”
said Tom Bentz, a director with BNP Paribas Prime Brokerage Inc.
in New York. “The market is up after the Iranians cut off supplies to some European countries. We are still sitting on the higher end of the range.”
Brent touched $121.82 today, the highest level since May 5, following Iran’s announcement of the oil export halt. The European Union on Jan. 23 agreed to ban crude imports from Iran starting July 1 to pressure the country over its nuclear program.
Iran “will give its crude oil to new customers instead of French and U.K. companies,” the Shana oil ministry news website reported yesterday, citing Alireza Nikzad Rahbar, a ministry spokesman.

Iran Sanctions

The Iranian decision will have “no impact on Britain’s energy security or supplies,” U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague said yesterday.
EU nations bought a combined 18 percent of Iran’s exports of crude and condensates, or 452,000 barrels a day, in the first half of 2011, according to the U.S. Energy Department. France purchased 49,000 barrels a day and the U.K. 11,000 barrels.
“The sanctions are making it increasingly difficult for Iran to sell oil,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “You are effectively taking Iran out of the global market, to some extent, and that’s a big deal.”
Oil also gained as U.S. equities rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped the 13,000 level for the first time since May 2008, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index traded above the highest close since 2008.
Hedge funds and other money managers raised wagers on advancing oil prices by 14 percent in the week ended Feb. 14 to 233,889, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report. It was the highest level since May 10.

For Related News and Information:
Top energy, oil stories: ETOP <GO> and OTOP <GO> News on oil inventories: TNI OIL INV <GO> News on oil markets: NI OILMARKET <GO> News on OPEC: NI OPEC <GO> Global energy statistics: ENST OLD <GO> Oil markets menu: OIL <GO>

--With assistance from Ann Koh in Singapore, Ayesha Daya in Dubai, James G. Neuger in Brussels and Ladane Nasseri in Tehran.
Editors: Margot Habiby, Richard Stubbe

Re: Daily market reviews from www.HYmarkets.com 1 year, 2 months ago #40

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Canada Dollar Holds Above Par as Volatility Sinks to 4-Year Low
2012-02-24 13:25:54.779 GMT


By Chris Fournier
Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s dollar remained stronger than parity with its U.S. counterpart as improved appetite for risk drove equities higher and a measure of implied volatility fell to the lowest level in more than four years.
The Canadian currency underperformed a majority of its most-traded counterparts today as crude oil, the nation’s largest export, dropped from the highest since May. The dollars of Canada and the U.S. were among the bottom four performers of the 16 so-called major currencies. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is due to give a speech today in New York.
“The U.S. dollar is generally weak and that tends to drag the Canadian dollar down on the crosses as well,” said Adam Cole, global head of foreign-exchange strategy at Royal Bank of Canada’s RBC Capital Markets unit in London. “To the extent that low volatility and Canadian dollar strength reflect better appetite for risk, then” low volatility is helping the loonie remain above parity, Cole said.
The loonie, as currency is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, fell 0.1 percent to 99.89 cents per U.S. dollar at 8:24 a.m. in Toronto. It has traded stronger than one-for-one with the greenback every day this month. One Canadian dollar buys $1.0010 U.S. cents.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.2 percent.
Implied volatility for one-month options on the Canadian dollar versus the greenback declined to 7.20 percent, the lowest level on an intraday basis since July 2007. It was as high as
15.6 percent in September. Implied volatility, which traders quote and use to set option prices, signals the expected pace of swings in the underlying currency. It averaged about 10 percent over the past decade.

For Related News and Information:
Foreign-exchange information platform: FXIP <GO> Canadian FX forecasts: FXFC CAD <GO> Top currency stories: TOP FX <GO> Top Canadian stories: TOPC <GO> Canadian-dollar volatility: CANA 9 <GO>

--Editors: Kenneth Pringle, Paul Cox
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